Saturday, August 10, 2019

HK

Before you start reading this, the TLDR is...

1. HK never had democratic rule, even under UK. In fact HK citizens were second class citizens within the British Empire.

2. The above can not be used to justify why HK/Chinese citizens do not deserve an accountable government that serves the interest of its people in 2019.

To all my friends wondering what is happening in HK (in slightly more detail)?
I'm not a history professor so please take everything I say with a healthy dose of skepticism.

To understand the situation of HK we need to go back a couple of hundred years to the Qing Dynasty, the last ruling Dynasty in China before the Chinese civil war was won by the Chinese Communist Party.

Opium War in a nutshell:
  • Colonial UK and European powers wanted to trade with China (Tea, Silk, Spices, China etc)China didn't have demand for a lot of European goods.
  • UK introduces Opium to China.
    Chinese government destroys British stockpiles after realising what the UK was trying to do.
  • UK demands compensation
  • China refuses
  • UK invades
  • China loses
  • HK is seceded to the UK on a lease that ended in 1997
Past

By 1997, the Qing Dynasty is extinct and Mainland China is run by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as the People's Republic of China (PRC) after winning the civil war and sending their enemies ,The Nationalists to Taiwan, which is formerly administrated as the Republic of China (ROC).

The UK during this time, had built HK into a thriving economy in Asia acting as a western access point into a huge set of local South East Asian markets as well as the reforming Chinese market.
It was Asia's gateway to the rest of the world.

This period is often seen in the eyes of HK citizens with rosy lens as it represented HK's golden age of being a developed economy is a part of the world where economies were largely destroyed by WWII with British and western investments pouring in.

UK's rule over HK however was far from democratic. HK citizens were not full British citizens with voting and movement rights within the Commonwealth. Even though a British parliamentary system was put in place, HK citizens did not have the right to vote and was ruled by a Colonial Governor appointed by the UK.

In 1997, as part of the hand over agreement CCP agreed to a 50 year deal where the CCP would guarantee no changes to HK's independent government and independent judiciary system.
However, the CCP has looked for every opportunity to violate these protections in every creative legal and illegal way possible and this tension has been boiling over since 1997.

Whilst all this was happening, the CCP squashed one of the largest student democratic movements in history by attacking and killing countless civilians, often represented in the media as the Tiananmen Massacre in 1989.

Present
In 2019, the HK government, ruled by Chief Executive Carrie Lam, tried to introduce changes to the judiciary system where it was possible legally to extradite criminals from the comparatively transparent HK legal system to the opaque at best Mainland legal system.

On face value, the CCP used vague examples of criminals slipping through legal loop holes to avoid justice. I say vague because the only examples I heard/read within Chinese media were not specific with stats or impact, just vague anecdotes.

Timing was extremely poor as the government decided to announce these changes during the anniversary of the Tiananmen Massacre when tensions regarding authoritarian rule and government oppression are already high and existing vigils and protests were already been organized.

HK citizens are suspicious of these laws as it would legalize an extradition treaty with the CCP that was vulnerable to abuse. These suspicions are not unwarranted as the CCP has a history of arresting and extraditing political opponents illegally.  HK citizens also see this as a violation of the 50 year guarantee that they would remain largely independent.

Future and thoughts?

HK's movement is largely decentralized in that there is no controlling political body or organization that is coordinating political strategy. This makes it much harder for the CCP to end the protests by banning/arresting their way out of this mess.

However, without coordination, CCP also has a clear advantage in controlling the narrative globally and I would argue more importantly within its own mainland borders.

The CCP controls most media in China and has successfully framed the HK protests as a tantrum thrown by an unruly kid that needs to step back in line. Mainland Chinese do not see HK's protests as a protest for all, and in some regards its not.

Without the hearts and minds of Mainland Chinese citizens, HK would largely be a contained incident and without 1B+ people pressuring the government to back off, then the CCP is emboldened to make drastic and risky moves (ie. Beijing in 1989).

The story has also been framed as a war of cultures, Democracy vs Authoritarianism, West vs East. But subscribing to that logic would also mean subscribing to the logic that Chinese/Eastern culture is somehow inherently not compatible with the values of a liberal democracy, something I don't believe.
I think Democracy is incompatible to how the CCP wants to run China, but the CCP likes to frame Democracy as being incompatible with Chinese culture itself.

The HK movement also suffers because it's not been framed as a democratic movement for all Chinese but a protest to protect their own rights which makes it harder to gain support from the rest of the population.

I hope it does not descend into madness, I hope the CCP has learned from their mistakes of the past and as a whole are truly dedicated to improving the lives of its 1B+ citizens, including those in HK.
I hope the CCP, the HK government and the people of HK can resolve this without using military force on a population it's supposed to protect.

I hope I'm not wrong.

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